VIRTUAL - US Midwest Midterm Battlegrounds: Which Way Will They Turn?
Since 2016, the American industrial heartland states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have been home to voters who decided Presidential and midterm elections. Voters in economically struggling formerly thriving manufacturing communities – once solidly in the Democratic camp – first put Republican Donald Trump in the White House by a very narrow margin in 20216, then changed course and swept Democrat Joe Biden to power in 2024. These same voters tilted back to support Trump in 2024, as his campaign successfully pinned inflation and high living costs on the incumbent President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris (who went on to be the Democratic nominee when Biden exited the raise in July 2024) with promises to lower prices "on day one."
Even as Democrats in these same states won gains in the midterm elections of 2018 and 2022, there has been a consistent political through-line: the economy has proven decisive.
Better-off communities, including former industrial cities on the rebound, trended Democratic (carrying the Democratic to victory). But residents who struggle economically, many in former manufacturing communities that remained in decline, have seen their vote share for Republicans increase in every election since 2016 – including the 2018 midterm Congressional Elections, the 2020 Presidential contest, the 2022 Congressional midterms, and the 2024 Trump- Biden rematch.
Now that the war in Iran, tariffs, and trade wars have sent prices climbing once again, what is going to happen in the heartland in 2026?
This Heartlands Transformation Network transatlantic virtual discussion session will examine the key political dynamics at work in these battleground states' key Congressional elections. Leading experts on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania politics weigh in include:
- Jon Delano, Veteran Pennsylvania Journalist and Political Reporter with KDKA-TV Pittsburgh for political coverage this fall
- Lauren Gibbons, senior politics reporter at Bridge Michigan
- Craig Gilbert, political columnist for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Lubar Fellow, Marquette Law School
The discussion will be facilitated by Ben Speggen, vice president of the Jefferson Educational Society.
Jon Delano - Veteran Pennsylvania Journalist and Political Reporter with KDKA-TV Pittsburgh
Jon Delano is a longtime political and public affairs journalist who spent more than 30 years on air with KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh, covering government, politics, economic development, and business issues affecting Western Pennsylvania.
During his career at KDKA-TV, Delano reported extensively on local, state, and national politics and interviewed and covered presidents, governors, candidates, elected officials, and other influential figures. He also hosted the Sunday morning public affairs segment The Sunday Business Page, presented the Money Minute, and hosted the periodic program Inside PA Politics with Jon Delano. Now retired from daily television news, Delano remains active as a moderator and speaker. He regularly moderates programs and legislative panels for businesses, associations, and nonprofit organizations and speaks about contemporary political campaigns and the presidents, governors, candidates, and public figures he has encountered throughout his career.
Lauren Gibbons - "senior politics reporter" at Bridge Michigan
Lauren Gibbons covers state politics and government for Bridge Michigan, tracking the Michigan Legislature, elections and the impact of federal policy on the state. Before joining Bridge, she led Legislature and redistricting coverage at MLive and covered the state Senate for MIRS News. She has covered Michigan politics for more than a decade, winning awards for her political and criminal justice reporting. A Lansing native who graduated from Michigan State University, Lauren is now based in Ferndale. Her party tricks include telling friends which political districts they live in without looking.
Craig Gilbert - political columnist for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Lubar Fellow, Marquette Law School.
Craig Gilbert is a political columnist for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and a Lubar Fellow at Marquette University Law School. He recently retired as the Journal Sentinel’s Washington Bureau Chief and national political reporter after a distinguished career covering American politics. Gilbert has covered every presidential campaign since 1988, with a particular focus on Wisconsin’s role as one of the nation’s most closely contested political battlegrounds. His reporting has explored the changing political landscape of the industrial Midwest, political polarization, swing-state politics, and the growing urban-rural divide. His work has been recognized by the National Press Foundation, National Headliner Awards, Milwaukee Press Club, Editor & Publisher, and Columbia Journalism Review, which described him as the “most political science friendly reporter in America.” Gilbert has served as a Knight-Wallace Fellow at the University of Michigan, a writer-in-residence at the University of Wisconsin, and a fellow at Marquette Law School’s Lubar Center. Earlier in his career, he worked for the Miami Herald and the Kingston Daily Freeman and served as a speechwriter for U.S. Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan. He earned his bachelor’s degree in history from Yale University.
